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+--- Thread: 10 Must-read fantasy football stats for Week 3 (/showthread.php?tid=4386)
10 Must-read fantasy football stats for Week 3 - sharon_orn - 01-01-2025
I'm a film guy at heart, I'll admit. However, there's a ton to learn from the numbers as well. There's a tremendous amount of resources out there, and spreadsheets to compile. Here are some of my favorite notes from my stats research for Week 3.As it stands today, is a top-five fantasy running back in standard leagues. Despite that, most observers are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. We've all been hurt by a running back before, and many are letting that fear navigate them away from trusting . Let's be honest though, if he didn't wear a red and blue jersey, would already be a beloved, all on-board fantasy a set. It's time to let go of the past and that accompanying fear, because the are riding Lewis.Despite two fumbles in as many games, the continue to roll Lewis out there. He's simply too good to take off the field. The Bill Belichick fumbling narrative looms large, but history and whispers out of New England hold that the all-time great head coach is more ribbed by a player who doesn Tomas Satoransky Jersey 't prepare or practice with intensity. That's been the true culprit of the running back turnover, more so than Belichick's supposed whimsy. and other members of the organization have gone out of their way to praise Lewis for doing everything he'd been asked, and beating out the competition. The grinding nature of his comeback since being out of the league after a 2013 offseason injury has to stick with the team. is sure to see his snaps reduced, although he out-snapped 69 to seven in Blount's first game of the season. There's some talking as if that count could see a drastic shift the other direction in Week Three. However, the rank fifth in allowing fantasy points to running backs, and give up 2.9 yards per run play (second fewest in the NFL). Perhaps this doesn't profile as a "Blount game" either. Even when or if Blount does begin to work more prominently into the rotation, Lewis still has a safe floor. Pa s-catching running backs linked with good quarterbacks and offenses are usable week-in-and-week out in fantasy. The might have the best in the NFL in both of those attachments right now.Calling Lewis a sell-high is an operation based on fear, and ignores a new reality presenting itself. Bill Belichick is a smart coach who wants to win football games. Until Lewis gives him a reason not to, he won't arbitrarily switch up what's working on his offense. Belichick clearly is, and sometimes fantasy owners just need to trust the talent as well. All the evidence presented this season is screaming that is here to stay. was a popular sleeper in Week 2, and there's some merit to rolling him back out for Week 3 in PPR leagues. No Dallas running back has played more snaps than Dunbar, despite only having one carry to his name. He's the pa sing down specialist. Mi sing hurts a bit, but has made use of his running backs in the pa sing game before. Per Rotoworld's , in the 23 games Weeden played in 2012 and 2013, his running backs averaged seven targets.The have allowed 76 yards in back-to-back games to and . Both are satellite pa s-catching backs in their respective offenses, as well. The defense is improved, but their linebackers are too slow in coverage to deal with these ancillary players. Dunbar makes for a good flex play if your leagues is a PPR format and your other running backs can' Wendell Carter Jersey t be trusted.We looked at Joe Goodberry's " versus common and uncommon opponents" stat in of this column. Following that revelation led us to play him against the in Week 1, and we reaped a QB9 performance reward. Now we find ourselves on the other side of the stat. No team is more familiar, or gives Dalton more trouble than the . Even in Dalton's top-five fantasy season from 2013, he threw seven interceptions in two games against Baltimore. Despite two strong QB1 games to start the 2015 season, history suggests we pivot off Dalton in Week 3. Considering this game will take place in the stadium, you should looks elsewhere for your starting fantasy pa ser. , and hold more appeal this week.The have the NFL's best defense, and are the top fantasy unit. For context on how good that is, the next lowest figure is Dallas with .22. Their work against opposing pa sers through the first two weeks is something special. They've put on a complete dismantling of both and , as the duo posted a combined Coby White Jersey score of 5.8 points against Denver. The have a pair of top NFL corners, and a ferocious pa s rush led by . That is an unmanageable combination for opposing pa sers.This is a stat to remember about all offenses facing Denver going forward. For this week, it pushes Matt Stafford far out of starting considerations, not that there were good reasons for anyone to still have him in that range. You likely have no choice but to roll with , but don't expect him to suddenly reverse trend on a quiet start to the season. belongs on Week 3 benches. This could be game where the focus on dumping the ball off to running backs, and feed more targets to the emerging . Denver has historically struggled covering the tight end position.Almost any team's yards per carry and raw yardage run defense ranking is going to be skewed if they've played the 2015 . Dallas definitely flies to the ball, and has a swarming mentality on defense. Despite being light on talent, the group feeds off effort and intensity. However, they're still below average in allowing fantasy points to running backs. Perhaps their run defense has cracks to exploit, despite a top ranking in yards allowed totals.Throughout 2014 and into this season, the have been able to hide their defense's deficiencies by owning the time of po se sion on offense. It's hard to imagine them doing that with at the helm, and functioning as the top running back.Many analysts are bullish on as a fantasy play this weekend with set to mi s the game on Sunday. Based on volume alone, Freeman owns the pa sing downs already in Atlanta, there's merit to the thought. If Dallas' early stellar play against the run is in fact a mirage, he could pay off more than his doubters suspect. We haven't seen play this well since the mid-2000s, but the reality is he's performing at a top-five quarterback level. The signs were all there that Palmer would enjoy a big season in Bruce Arians' offense, now that he'd mastered it. However, not many expected him to be the QB3, much le s the NFL's most efficient quarterback through two weeks. Here we are though; has earned the right to be among the every week starters at quarterback.Of course, some of Palmer's outrageous efficiency can be attributed to great matchups. Both Chicago and New Orleans rank in the bottom eight of fantasy points allowed and yards per pa s attempt. However, the train won't stop rolling in Week 3, with San Francisco coming to town. The join the and in the bottom barrel of both previously highlighted pa s defense statistics. There's no reason to fade until he gives us a reason to do so.This was supposed to be his year, but not much is going well for . With out of the picture, and Stewart left to own the backfield for himself. All the optimism for naught, as Stewart currently sits at RB32 through two weeks. The are running the offense through -he has only 11 le s carries than his starting running back. However, that doesn't explain Stewarts rushing inefficiency.The offensive line has exceeded expectations as a pa s-blocking unit, but haven't yet gelled as run blockers. Also teams can stack the Lauri Markkanen Jersey box against Carolina with little fear of the pa s game. However, the most likely explanation is an age-old one often ignored in . Running back scoring has long held a positive correlation to overall offensive efficiency, and pa s game succe s. We know Carolina struggles in both facets, and help is not on the way. Unfortunately, because of this, we need to adjust expectations for . Even if he has a bounce-back game against the this week, we should accept that he'll be a volatile a set even with a healthy volume.Left for dead in the vast majority of fantasy drafts, is emerging as a major piece of the offense. He's out-targeted and far outperformed veteran . He's looked completely capable of handling number-one receiver duties, shouldering the pa sing load while played through an injury. Moncrief offers a size/speed combination that no one has played with at the NFL level can match.What should we expect going forward, and just how good can be? We shouldn't set limits on that, going by how he's played so far. Moncrief ranks in the top ten in terms of yards per target, fantasy points per target and reception percentage among receivers with at least 15 targets. He's producing at a rate Wendell Carter Jr. Jersey akin to one of the best receivers in the NFL, and he's backing it . No matter how you paint it, Moncrief has season changing upside. Taking the waiver approach is too late, so if you want that on your team, you'll have to be aggre sive in a trade.While Fitzgerald's numbers will no doubt regre s after a three touchdown demolition of the , the fantasy community must acknowledge him as an every week WR2 going forward. Fitzgerald carries the three-pronged stack of efficiency, volume and attachment to a top-shelf quarterback performer. That combination is the Holy Grail when it comes to veteran wide receivers.Despite throwing more pa ses in non-AFC South games, scores the same amount of fantasy points as he does in division games. Much of this is due to throwing .59 more interceptions in games outside the division. The trouble with sinking an -level fantasy draft pick into this summer was the di similar way they accrue fantasy production. Rodgers' appeal comes from his unreal consistent efficiency, while Luck only has that when he plays against his division opponent. Not every team in the NFL gives way to offenses like the AFC South teams do. Outside of the division, Luck is a fantasy pa ser that relies on volume over efficiency, and is more volatile than anyone often wants to admit.This isn't to say won't be a high-end QB1 through the rest of the way. The offense might not reach the level many expected prior to the season, but there's too much talent for Luck to not succeed. In fact, the point of this stat is to lead us to expect a big game this week when the travel to play the (21st in fantasy points allowed per pa s attempt). He's a great daily fantasy play this week, with recency bias driving the public off him. and will all be highly played, while recent struggles diminish Luck's ownership percentage. You won't be able to take advantage of such a strong chance to differentiate your lineup by playing one of the NFL's best quarterbacks like you can with Luck in Week 3.Matt Harmon is an a sociate fantasy writer/editor for NFL.com, and the creator of , who you can follow on Twitter __.
RE: 10 Must-read fantasy football stats for Week 3 - xthulhu - 27-01-2025
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RE: 10 Must-read fantasy football stats for Week 3 - xthulhu - 02-02-2025
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